CIES Observatory numbers reveal Liverpool chances of retaining title

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Liverpool have hit the ground running this term, opening with three victories including a 1-0 triumph over Arsenal at Anfield, while Manchester City have stumbled, dropping points in two of their opening three fixtures.

With that sharp contrast in form setting the early tone, the latest CIES Football Observatory forecast gives the Reds a clear edge in the title race.

Their in-depth model combines on-field performance metrics, transfer investment figures, and player usage data to give the likelihood of each team winning the Premier League.

Edited by Raffaele Poli, Roger Besson, and Loïc Ravenel, the report analyses 29 top-flight leagues worldwide, with Serbia’s Crvena Zvezda (76.2%), Paris Saint-Germain (73.0%), and Mamelodi Sundowns (70.6%) being the most nailed on to win their respective divisions.

Naturally, the Premier League is a bit more competitive, but the Reds have been given a good chance of retaining their title.

According to CIES Football Observatory, Liverpool has a 28.9% chance of clinching the 2025/26 crown, edging out Arsenal (18.8%) and Chelsea (16.2%).

Below is a table of the top eight highest rated chances to win the Premier League, with the rest of the clubs in the topflight having less than 1%:

Club

Liverpool FC

Amongst fans and pundits, Arne Slot’s men have been tipped as the favourites for the title – so it’s nice to see numbers back up the claim.

In La Liga, Real Madrid lead the way with a 40.6% probability of securing the league title, followed by Barcelona at 29.6% and Atlético Madrid at 22.1%.

Over in Serie A, Inter top the predictions with a 25.6% chance, while Juventus and Napoli trail behind with 18.2% and 17.4% respectively.

Bayern Munich stand out in the Bundesliga with a commanding 61.4% likelihood of winning, well ahead of Borussia Dortmund’s 8.8%.

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