Man United should be in a RELEGATION battle in worrying sign for Erik ten Hag, while Chelsea deserve to be in the top four as stats boffins reveal their 'expected points' table... so where does your team rank?
- Man United are 15th and Chelsea are fourth in the league's expected goals table
- A different team top the table while the European battle has been rearranged
- Arsenal must recover in Munich - they can't carry the fear from Villa loss into Champions League showdown - Listen to the It's All Kicking Off podcast
Manchester United should be locked in a relegation battle according to their 'expected points' total, stats supremos have revealed.
Erik ten Hag's side apparently deserve to sit 15th and just six points ahead of the bottom three at this stage, while Chelsea should be in the top four.
The table is calculated based on the expected goals totals in each side's games so far, with the totals calculated by Stats Perform.
Arsenal would be top of the table with a couple of points of breathing room over Manchester City if life worked according to expected goals.
There would be a 12-point gap between Liverpool in third on 64 points and Chelsea on 52.
Manchester United would be in a relegation battle if the expected points table was real life
Meanwhile, Chelsea would sneak into the top four despite being ninth in the real league table
All the same, Chelsea fans would definitely take a Champions League spot considering that in real life they are ninth in the league and behind Manchester United.
United's position might be down to them allowing other clubs to have so many shots against them. They rank among the worst sides in the top flight for allowing shots on goal.
They reached a particular low when Brentford managed 31 strikes against them and Chelsea and Liverpool hit 28 in subsequent games.
The expected points table is fairly true to what we've seen in real life.
Sheffield United still prop up the standings while Luton are 19th and Burnley are 18th, so just in the wrong order.
Crystal Palace and Wolves are level on points with Man United but below them in the table.
Newcastle will be impressed to see themselves fifth in Stats Perform's standings.
Arsenal are top of the expected points table with a two-point gap over Manchester City
Despite being 13 points behind Aston Villa and 10 behind Tottenham in actuaity, they are above them on expected points, meaning they msut be either wasteful or really unlucky around the goalmouths when it comes to match day.
Considering their upcoming fixtures in contrast to Spurs', the Magpies will be hoping they can plug the gap that separates them. Their 4-1 win over Spurs at the weekend certainly shows that they have immense quality to challenge them.
Everton are also big climbers, sitting 10th in the expected points table, while Nottingham Forest are 12th.
But it's sorry reading for West Ham fans, and perhaps not much surprise. They slip to 14th in the table and are only seven points clear of the drop zone.