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PL predictions: Cagey at City, boost for Liverpool

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Jones Knows is back to provide predictions and betting insights on all 10 Premier League games - what's he backing this week?

Leeds vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm (Play Super 6 here!) 2:40 We take a look at some of the stats surrounding Matchweek 35 in the Premier League

I'm keen on opposing Leeds in their remaining fixtures this season.

Although the defeat at Brighton was their first in seven Premier League games, the usual gusto seen in a Marcelo Bielsa side has been dwindling and that is having a big effect on their ability to create chances.

Leeds usually are among the top performers when it comes to analysing goals scored, expected goals and shots on goal but in their last seven fixtures, performance levels have actually mirrored a team battling relegation. Just one goal per game during that period is very un-Leeds like and it's a figure backed up by their expected goals number (1.05). Many will argue a tough run of games is to blame and that is a fair point. Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool have been a daunting set of fixtures, however, they looked badly out of ideas and energy in the 2-0 defeat at Brighton.

Spurs should fancy their chances. Even more so if Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha are missing again through injury. Away win.

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BETTING ANGLE: Tottenham to win to nil (3/1 with Sky Bet)

Also See:Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports

John Fleck getting away card-free despite appearing to stamp on Giovani Lo Celso's face last weekend summed up my betting escapades. One of my most confident punts of the weekend was one of Fleck or Ollie Norwood - who are playing with much more bite under Paul Heckingbottom - to receive a card against Tottenham. Spitting feathers, I was.

I'm back to recoup those losses, in a responsible way of course, by following Fleck in again this weekend at a juicy 100/30 to be carded with Sky Bet. Two fouls against Spurs took him to 13 fouls in his last six matches. His tendency for a lunge or cynical challenge will come into play up against the likes Wilfried Zaha and Eberechi Eze. That angle should provide some excitement on what could be a tough watch.


BETTING ANGLE: John Fleck to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)

Manchester City vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky SportsSaturday 8th May 5:00pm Kick off 5:30pm

This is the dress rehearsal before the fireworks go off in Istanbul on May 29.

And what do we know about dress rehearsals? They are never the same as the real thing.

No matter how much our taste buds want this to be a pulsating encounter full of incident and goals, the sensible strategy in this one is to oppose goals. Without even factoring in the likely match scenario of caution-focused football with both teams potentially playing with a focus elsewhere, the basic numbers paint a strong argument for a low-scoring encounter where chances will be hard to come by against resolute defences. Since Thomas Tuchel took charge, Chelsea have kept 18 clean sheets in 24 games and have conceded just eight goals in 15 Premier League games under his watch. Amazingly, over half of those came in one game against West Brom.

Then you have the City wall, led masterfully by - arguably - the best defender on the planet in Ruben Dias. This is a defence that has stopped Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland scoring over the past month. And one that when Dias and John Stones are partnered together have conceded just eight goals in 21 matches.

Much like the FA Cup tie between the pair, this will be a game of chess played out in an environment where a draw will do just fine for both managers. The 0-0 at 8/1 with Sky Bet has to be a runner.


BETTING ANGLE: Back the 0-0 correct score (15/2 with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Southampton, Saturday 8.15pm, live on Sky SportsSaturday 8th May 7:45pm Kick off 8:15pm

My eyes have been drawn to the Southampton shots market for a bet in the one.

Ralph Hasenhuttl - who should be the obvious candidate for the Tottenham job - always instructs his teams to play aggressively on the road, even against the elite teams. Since taking the job in December 2018, Hassenhuttl's side have had 523 shots at goal in their away games - only five Premier League teams have averaged more per 90 minutes on the road.

Sky Bet have set the line at 10 or more shots at 11/10 with Sky Bet. My punting juices are telling me that's a generous angle considering they've averaged 12.5 shots per 90 minutes in their last seven fixtures. Also, since Jurgen Klopp took the job, only Manchester City and Southampton have managed 16 or more shots in a game against Liverpool at Anfield, with Hasenhutt's side registering 17 attempts on goal in the fixture last season. They can hit similar numbers here.


BETTING ANGLE: Southampton to have 10 or more shots (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Wolves vs Brighton, Sunday 12pm

The lack of praise for the way Brighton defend has gone on too long. It's time to sing about them.

In their last 15 games, Graham Potter's side have conceded just 10 goals. It's the joint-best record in the Premier League along with Chelsea for that period. Have they been fortunate in that run? Not according to the expected goals against numbers that completely align with their sensational actual record.

A big reason for their solidity is down to Lewis Dunk, who yet again was absolutely beast-like in the win over Leeds.

He is the complete package now. Apart from Ruben Dias and Harry Maguire, there isn't a better centre-back in the league on current form. That begs the question why are the likes of Conor Coady - who he'll face here - and Tyrone Mings ahead of him in the England pecking order? Gareth Southgate, who handed Dunk his only England cap, surely can't ignore these level of performances for much longer? With the lack of options in that area of the field for England, Dunk could be the surprise package when the squad is announced at the end of the month. He deserves a crack.

Image: Lewis Dunk has led Brighton magnificently this season

The 25/1 on offer from Sky Bet for him to make the 26-man squad is begging to be backed. Another clean sheet in an away win at Molineux would do his cause no harm either.


BETTING ANGLE: Lewis Dunk to make 26-man England squad (25/1 with Sky Bet)

Aston Villa vs Manchester United, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky SportsSunday 9th May 1:00pm Kick off 2:05pm

Manchester United have lost just one Premier League match from their last 27 fixtures. It's a phenomenal run. The fact that defeat came against Sheffield United, goes along with the Gary Neville theory of this team being an "odd bunch."

They've fallen behind in seven of those matches though and Villa could make this an exciting spectacle by taking an early lead. They can be backed at 13/8 with Sky Bet to score the first goal.

And, Ollie Watkins looks decent value to get it.

He is a defender's nightmare, isn't he? The striker doesn't stop making runs for 90 minutes. It's like Villa are playing with two men in attack instead of just him such are his energy levels. It's no coincidence that his return to form has come alongside an upturn in results for Villa.

I do like the 6/1 with Sky Bet for him to get the opening goal in what should be a high-scoring encounter.


BETTING ANGLE: Ollie Watkins to score first (6/1 with Sky Bet)

West Ham vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

The game of the weekend. No question. And, West Ham's most important match since facing Blackpool in the 2012 Championship play-off final.

There's a strong possibility that four wins from their remaining four games will be enough for a top-four finish.

A Hammers fan got in touch this week calling me a "muppet" for my continued negative view when it comes to predicting West Ham matches. He was bang on. I just can't get them right.

But I have seen the light.

My decision to be all over Burnley last week ended in usual calamitous fashion where West Ham games are concerned as David Moyes' side were absolutely dominant in every department. Putting on an all-round showing like that despite going 1-0 down at Turf Moor and without their best player in Declan Rice, triggered my brain to conclude for the first time that a top-four finish is genuinely within their grasp.

Everton are a tough nut to crack on the road but a run of just one win in their last seven Premier League games, taking just six points from 21 available, is a worry. They aren't rising to the occasion, unlike the Hammers.


BETTING ANGLE: West Ham to win by one goal (3/1 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs West Brom, Sunday 7pm

West Brom will be relegated here if they lose. Sam Allardyce's reputation as a relegation firefighter hasn't taken too much of a hit though. He's shaped the Baggies into a far more accomplished outfit, one that would probably stay up next season if they were a Premier League team while posting the performances levels of the past two months. But it's all too late for them.

Meanwhile, Mikel Arteta has a talented crop of young talent to work with and nurture, it's proved the most exciting part of a mind-numbing season for the Gunners. Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe have shone, but the real jewel in the crown could be Gabriel Martinelli, who does remind me of Alexis Sanchez in his pomp. He's aggressive, direct and is capable of making a difference in the final third. Arsenal are unbeaten in all six matches he's started in the Premier League this season. Yes, he's only 18-years-old but the young guns are full of responsibility in this Arsenal set-up. They are the future of this club and should be let loose in the final few games.

If selected, West Brom will need to keep a lid on Martinelli's clever movement, something that Fulham, Sheffield United and Newcastle all struggled with. His expected goal data shows a return of 0.59 per 90 minutes from his last five appearances in the Premier League, which is the fifth highest of any player, and he is averaging just over three shots a game on his current numbers. That all equates to the 6/1 with Sky Bet for him to score first looking devilishly juicy.


BETTING ANGLE: Gabriel Martinelli to score first (6/1 with Sky Bet)

Fulham vs Burnley, Monday 8pm, live on Sky SportsMonday 10th May 7:00pm Kick off 8:00pm

These are matches that a Sean Dyche-managed team just don't lose. When a result is needed, Burnley deliver.

Fulham will play the prettier football, rack up the shots count and please Scott Parker with their attitude but ultimately Burnley will make the big moments in the match go in their favour.

There will be no risks taken in this one, especially against a team that could just haul Burnley back into the relegation melting pot. A point will do nicely for the visitors.

Fulham's potential route to goal could come down their left channel with the Antonee Robinson. He has been very unfortunate to be playing in a side who don't finish their chances as his build-up play from wide areas is impressive. From 26 chances created for his team-mates this season, he has yet to register an assist. Only two players (Luke Ayling and Ivan Cavalerio) have created more without producing an assist in the Premier League. One is due before the end of the season and it may come here against a Burnley side that do force teams to play wide and deliver into their box.


BETTING ANGLE: Antonee Robinson to register an assist (6/1 with Sky Bet)

How did Jones Know do this weekend?

Leicester 2-4 Newcastle: JONES KNOWS PREDICTED 1-1 & his Betting Angle was a winner: Newcastle to win or draw at 15/8 with Sky Bet.

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