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PL predictions: Everton to win at Brighton

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After finding a 4/1 winner on Saturday, Jones Knows returns with his predictions and sees victories for West Ham and Tottenham.

West Ham vs Leicester, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky SportsSunday 11th April 2:00pm

The end is in sight. And West Ham are still in there pitching for a remarkable top-four finish. They have certainly made me look stupid on occasions this season, albeit that is not hard. I quite fancy them here though due to the way this match is likely to shape up.



The Hammers have the most wins (eight) and points (28) having had under 40 per cent possession in matches this season. David Moyes will be happy for Leicester to have the ball here and use Jesse Lingard as their creator in chief.



The return of James Maddison to the Leicester side will give West Ham plenty of issues to deal with though. He's likely to be marshalled by Mark Noble, who is set to make his 400th Premier League appearance. He performed well across all the key metrics vs Wolves, winning the most tackles, interceptions and possession won of any West Ham player. That shows the tenacity still burns bright which will be tested up against Maddison, who has got 10 players booked this season - only Harvey Barnes and Jack Grealish rank higher than him in that department. An ageing Noble looks a big price to pick up the first card at 15/2.



JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1

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BETTING ANGLE: Mark Noble first player to be carded (15/2 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has done a fine job up until now at managing Manchester United's workload. Clearly, the Europa League has taken precedence but one-goal wins over Brighton and West Ham have kept the wolves from the door in that regard despite performances not really matching their usual standards. That was the case on Thursday night too against Granada. It was job done but nothing more.

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I would fancy a fully-rested Spurs at 15/8 with Sky Bet to seriously trouble them here, much like Leicester did in the FA Cup after the away trip to AC Milan.

This may prove a little contradictory but despite not liking the price for an away win, the 7/2 with Sky Bet for United to be awarded a penalty certainly has a touch of value about it. This Tottenham back four are an accident waiting to happen. They have already conceded seven penalties this season in the Premier League with a tendency to make rash challenges against fellow top-six contenders. City, United, Chelsea, Leicester and Arsenal have all won a penalty against Spurs this season.

Here they come against a team full of trickery and pace in the final third that have won nine already this campaign and one in the win on Thursday night.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Manchester United to win a penalty (7/2 with Sky Bet)

Sheffield United vs Arsenal, Sunday 7pm

Is this a game Mikel Arteta really needs right now? One where anything other than a victory will spark a meltdown ahead of their most important game of the season on Thursday night away against Slavia Prague. It's a no-win situation for the manager. Arsenal look a little short in the outright markets for this one at 11/20 with Sky Bet but Sheffield United have lost 24 of their 30 Premier League games this season - the joint most by any side in the history of the competition. It's a no-bet kind of situation for me in terms of outrights.

One price I can get involved with is John Lundstram to pick up a card at a whopping 9/2 with Sky Bet. The midfielder has not learned how to rein in his enthusiasm this season, picking up eight bookings and a red card as his frustration at losing most weeks certainly is clear to see.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: John Lundstrum to be carded (9/2 with Sky Bet)

West Brom vs Southampton, Monday 6pm, live on Sky Sports

Sam Allardyce's side should be bouncing for this fixture - one that the manager will have a big circle around in his calendar. This is a winnable one. But, I cannot quite trust the Baggies just yet, especially against such a tactically astute attacking team like Southampton. However, with their season on the line, I am expecting them to have a proper go. The shots lines have got my attention.

It took West Brom just 11 shots to score their five goals at Stamford Bridge last weekend. A remarkable ratio considering they needed 85 shots to score their previous five goals which came spread across nine matches. The Baggies have averaged 12.5 shots per 90 minutes over their last four fixtures, so I was surprised to see Sky Bet going 5/1 for them to fire 15 or more shots in a game that should be set up for West Brom to produce plenty of attacking moments.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1

BETTING ANGLE: West Brom to have 15 or more shots (5/1 with Sky Bet)

Brighton vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Those that base their betting decisions purely on the expected goals model should be having a large wager on a Brighton win here, although they will not be getting much juice in terms of price with Brighton well backed in the market at 5/4 with Sky Bet. When calculating expected goals minus expected goals against, Brighton come out with a +15.5 ratio this season while Everton, despite being on the cusp of European qualification, have a habit of labouring when it comes to xG, posting a -3.08 ratio using the same formula.

Although factoring key performance metrics is a big part of my analysis process, sometimes the market moves far too in favour of teams like Brighton that post extremely positive data. That's happened here. Everton, at 23/10 with Sky Bet, look worth chancing to take maximum points. Carlo Ancelotti's team are expertly organised in defence and despite not creating many chances, they know how to play away from Goodison Park, winning seven of their last 10 Premier League games on the road.

If you throw in Richarlison, who has scored six in his last 10 matches and was unlucky not to net vs Crystal Palace, to find the net into the betting mix, you build yourself a lovely 11/2 with Sky Bet to attack.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2

BETTING ANGLE: Richarlison to score and Everton to win (11/2 with Sky Bet)

Friday's predictions

Fulham 0-1 Wolves - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-2

Saturday's predictions

Man City 1-2 Leeds - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 4-1

Liverpool 2-1 Aston Villa - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 2-0

Crystal Palace 1-4 Chelsea - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1

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