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PL predictions: Wolves to end Liverpool's record run

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Fresh from predicting winners at 9/2 and 5/1 in his column last weekend, Jones Knows is back with predictions aplenty for every Premier League game.

Burnley vs Everton, Saturday 12.30pm

Be careful with your bets for this one, especially if, like me, you think James Rodriguez might come to the fore in this encounter. Celebrating some Rodriguez magic that looks to have copped you a nice return only to look at your betting slip to see you've backed Jay Rodriguez instead is a place no one wants to be.

The Colombian playmaker has been given more licence to roam centrally since Manchester United exposed his defensive flaws in the win at Goodison Park down his flank and he was very influential against Leeds, creating four chances and registering two shots on target. I'd be interested in the 9/1 for him to score outside the penalty area considering he's had 11 shots from outside the box already this season and will be on free-kicks in the absence of Lucas Digne.

His quality in the final third could prove to be the difference in an afternoon where patience will be key for Everton against a resolute Burnley.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows betting column!

Two winners from two picks last weekend - a Jack Harrison assist (5/1) & Kurt Zouma card (9/2). What's he on this weekend?

Manchester City vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm - Play Super 6 to win £250,000!

I've been banging the Fulham drum hard and loud in the past few weeks and they hit the right notes at Leicester, causing Brendan Rodgers' team huge amounts of problems on the counter-attack. It will be a case of rinse and repeat surely for Scott Parker at City in terms of tactics.

I'm yet to be convinced Pep Guardiola's men are anywhere near the standards of previous seasons but Fulham will have to improve significantly defensively to stand any hope of nicking a result. Points will be hard to come by but grabbing a goal, playing with the same attacking fluidity as the Leicester win, is well within their capabilities.

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Since Deadline Day, Fulham rank sixth in the Premier League for chances created from open play and shots on goal and have scored in all but one of their matches, the anomaly being the Ademola Lookman penalty debacle at West Ham. You can get Evens on Fulham finding the net at the Etihad Stadium with the likes of Lookman (9/2), Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (18/1) and roaming left-back Antonee Robinson (40/1) all runners in the anytime goalscorer markets.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1 (10/1 with Sky Bet)

ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Fulham to score at Evens

West Ham vs Manchester United, 5.30pm, live on Sky SportsSaturday 5th December 5:00pm Kick off 5:30pm

I've got a secret to admit.

I backed Manchester United to win the Premier League this week at 20/1. I've now had two bites at them for the title, also at 20/1 (staked in July - read here why) and this one. There is a possibility I'm throwing good money away but United remain an elite side when all is clicking. Win their game in hand and they are two points off top spot.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer seems to have rekindled the hot form from last season where they consistently took points off their top-four rivals and beat Manchester City home and away. A win at West Ham would be their fourth Premier League victory in a row and their ninth convective away success. A few areas still remain a concern, Anthony Martial I'm looking at you, but United are showing an ability to break down low-block defensives now with Edinson Cavani, Donny van de Beek and of course Bruno Fernandes adding guile to an electric attack.

West Ham have actually played quite poorly in their last two home games with Fulham and Aston Villa - they won't get away with such sloppy performance levels here. Away win.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2 (10/1 with Sky Bet)

Chelsea vs Leeds, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

The Chelsea defensive juggernaut will be given a significant workout this weekend. Leeds won't be scared to throw caution to the wind with their usual gusto but may just bump into a Thiago Silva shaped wall.

Since his mishap on debut against West Brom, Silva has been downright dependable and excellently efficient without breaking sweat for Chelsea. In 450 minutes of game-time since the 3-3 draw at the Baggies, Silva has conceded just one goal on his watch. A figure backed up by the expected goals against figure of just 1.94 during that period. His influence, added to the no-nonsense goalkeeping of Edouard Mendy, could take Chelsea to silverware this season.

With the space on offer up the other end for Chelsea's forward players, who will be given license to test their skills one-on-one with Leeds' brave defensive shape, chances are going to fall their way at regular intervals in what should be a typically bonkers encounter. Their quality will shine through in the final third.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-0 (11/1 with Sky Bet)

2:28 Ahead of their clash live on Sky Sports, we look back at a five-goal thriller between Claudio Ranieri's Chelsea and Terry Venables' Leeds United West Brom vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 12pm, live on Sky SportsSunday 6th December 11:00am Kick off 12:00pm

Even Slaven Bilic looked apologetic when shaking Chris Wilder's hand last weekend as West Brom broke their winless run. How they survived with a clean sheet despite conceding an xG figure of 3.37 is a mystery wrapped in a riddle. I'll never work that one out.

Despite a much-needed three points, the Baggies still remain statistically the worst team in the Premier League. The 'expected goals scored' model has them bottom of the pile with a return of just 5.93 xG from their 10 games as does their 'expected goals against' figure of 20.53 - that's 4.3 more than any other side. Results eventually catch up with this type of performance data and Bilic will do well to keep their heads above water.

With Fulham improving and Sheffield United bound to turn performances into results at some stage, the 11/4 for West Brom to finish bottom remains an investment to seriously consider. I'm happy to take them on this weekend with reliable travellers Palace, who are playing with slightly more adventure this season and the return of Wilfried Zaha is an obvious but important factor.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (17/2 with Sky Bet)

Sheffield United vs Leicester, Sunday 2.15pm, live on Sky SportsSunday 6th December 2:00pm Kick off 2:15pm

Chris Wilder can't catch a break.

Not only was there an alien-like forcefield installed around West Brom's goal last weekend as his side failed to score on an xG of 3.37 - he's now about to face Leicester who have three of their key stars returning from injury.

Wilfred Ndidi, Caglar Soyuncu and Ricardo Pereira all are a huge upgrade on Leicester's back-ups, especially Ricardo, who is one of the best attacking full-backs in the Premier League. His energy, dribbling and final third quality has been sorely missed for nine months.

If the Blades can get their noses in front then this might be where their season turns but although Leicester aren't creating many chances, they have a habit of taking them when it matters. Jamie Vardy just loves scoring against Sheffield United too - he might just be cupping an ear towards the empty stands at Bramall Lane again in this one.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (17/2 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky SportsSunday 6th December 4:15pm Kick off 4:30pm

Mikel Arteta - once a tactical genius, now a poor man's Unai Emery.

Of course, I jest, that's far from the truth.

He wasn't the second coming when he was out-mastering Pep Guardiola en route to winning an FA Cup and he's far from washed up has-been now.

However, his chat this week about Arsenal's crossing stats has left me wondering whether he is as savvy as many made him out to be. As my colleague Adam Bate wrote in his brilliant analysis of Areta's crossing statistics: "It can sometimes be seen as a sign of desperation, indicative of a team that has resorted to flinging balls into the box when unable to break down a defence by more efficient means."

Nail on head. Arsenal's patterns of play in forward areas are coming across as desperate. Barring a Gabriel header from one of those hopeful crosses and a Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang penalty, Arsenal haven't troubled the scorers in their last six games. The last thing they need is a Jose Mourinho marshalled defence to break down.

Since the 3-3 draw with West Ham, Spurs have shipped just one goal in five games with clean sheets against Manchester City and Chelsea to their name. It's time to go back to the Tottenham to win by goal theory again, this week you can get 11/4 - no manager does it better than Jose.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Wolves, Sunday 7.15pm

Everything has its price. And the key to becoming a winning punter in this game is to know when to act when the odds are just too good to sniff at. This is one of those situations. Wolves are just too big to ignore at 5/1 to end Liverpool's club record unbeaten run at home.

Jurgen Klopp's men have shown enough vulnerability in recent weeks to present an argument that a well-drilled, top-six side in the Premier League can roll them over. Wolves tick those boxes.

Yes, Liverpool were magnificent against Leicester but woeful against Atalanta, distinctly average against Brighton and second-best for long periods until they went ahead against Ajax. And now, with Alisson joining their long list of absentees for this encounter, it's time to take them on. The sample size is small, granted, but in the 11 games without Alisson since he signed for Liverpool, Klopp's men have conceded 1.5 goals per fixture in comparison to 0.7 with him in the team. And, for the two games without him this season, Liverpool were thumped 7-2 at Aston Villa and drew at Everton.

Caoimhin Kelleher made two brilliant saves as he was catapulted into the limelight against Ajax but his inexperience wasn't really targeted by the Dutch champions. I'm sure Wolves will be doing more to test him whenever possible from set-pieces, crosses and shots from outside the box. With Adama Traore back in full-flow and previous encounters between these two being tight - remember, Wolves have beaten Liverpool twice in the FA Cup under Nuno - it's time to jump on the Wolves train.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (16/1 with Sky Bet)

ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Leander Dendoncker to have a shot at Evens

Brighton vs Southampton, Monday 8pm, live on Monday Night FootballMonday 7th December 7:00pm Kick off 8:00pm

Ralph Hasenhuttl is a brilliant football manager; regular readers will know this. But he's also a magician. He is sprinkling an almighty outperformance into his Southampton attack that is quite staggering when assessing the numbers. In their last seven games, Hasenhuttl's sprightly boys have created chances equating to an expected goals figure of 6.7, so just under a goal a game. Yet, with some deadly finishing from Che Adams and James Ward-Prowse fast becoming the next David Beckham, Southampton have scored 16 goals in that period, no team have scored more during that time. It's a colossal overperformance and no matter my belief in Hasenhuttl to work miracles, it's unsustainable.

This is an enticing match-up when it comes to expected goals data and Brighton, opposite to Southampton, are the perineal underperformers when it comes to analysing performance data. They have won the xG battle in seven of their 10 fixtures but have just two wins to their name.

Usually, data is key to correctly analysing a football match. But this occasion it's left my brain frazzled. Best go for the draw then.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (5/1 with Sky Bet)

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