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Why relying on comebacks to win the Premier League title is ill-advised

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Klopp was praising his players for their resilience during a long season: Liverpool played 63 games in all competitions, starting in mid-August and ending in late May.

Those two domestic cups were nearly part of a quadruple, with Liverpool losing the Champions League final (1-0 to Real Madrid in Paris) and finishing second to Manchester City in the Premier League, despite earning 92 points — the second-most by any Premier League runners-up, after their 97 in 2018-19.

Liverpool only trailed seven times in 2018-19 (Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

Liverpool recovered 20 points from losing position in 2021-22, winning five and drawing five of the 12 games in which they fell behind.



The notion that Liverpool’s comebacks in the current season — already taking the fourth-most points in a single Premier League campaign from losing positions (27, with seven wins) — are the hallmark of champions is a myth that needs busting.



Liverpool have claimed 27 points from losing positions this season (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

In the 31 Premier League seasons, there have only been three instances of the title going to the team to recover the most points from losing positions.

There are, in reverse chronological order: Manchester United in Sir Alex Ferguson’s final season in 2012-13 (29 points, nine wins and two draws), Arsenal in their 2003-04 Invincibles season (21 points, six wins and three draws), and United again in 1999-00 (24 points, six wins and six draws), though this was the joint-most with Arsenal, who they beat to the title that season by 18 points.

Arsenal’s Invincibles celebrate winning the league at White Hart Lane in April 2004 (Odd Anderson/AFP via Getty Images)

They are exceptions which prove a rule true: that champions are champions because they largely go ahead in games and see them out.

It was the exception to the rule, with Liverpool leading at half-time in 24 of 38 games that season — they went on to win 23 of them.

Taking the average Premier League champions from the competition’s 31 completed seasons, they fall behind in close to 11 games and earn around 14 points from losing position.

With the average Premier League title won with 88 points, the proportion of points won from losing positions typically accounts for 15 per cent.

Tellingly, the proportion of Liverpool’s total points won from losing positions has been higher in each of the four seasons since their title win than it was in that 2019-20 campaign, partly because they have fallen behind more too.

“I prefer to be 5-0 in the final moments, but that’s tricky,” Klopp said recently.

It is a slightly extreme example to demonstrate, but compare that to when they score first, 102 points (2.68ppg) across a full season, and the contrast is stark.

(Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Excluding this season, there have been 18 instances of a team recovering at least 22 points from losing positions in a Premier League season.

This was despite, at worst, hitting 86 points (2020-21) and, at their best, being centurions (2017-18).

Recovering points from losing positions has become a common trend across the Premier League this season, as more teams become attack-minded and less risk-averse defensively.
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