Liverpool given better chance of Champions League glory in 2026/27 than Real Madrid
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Despite only about just qualifying for this season’s Champions League, Liverpool are ranked by objective calculations as one of the likeliest winners of the tournament.For much of 2025/26, it looked as though the Reds would miss out altogether, and it wasn’t until the final day of the campaign that they secured qualification. Even then, it required England being granted one of UEFA’s European Performance Spots to give them a route into the competition.The Merseysiders still reached the quarter-finals last term despite their domestic struggles, although they were comprehensively beaten by eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain at that stage.How likely are Liverpool to win the Champions League in 2026/27?The league phase of the 2026/27 Champions League begins tonight, with Liverpool entering the fray at home to Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, and Opta has calculated the Reds’ chances of overall glory.Andoni Iraola’s side are given a 6.11% chance of winning the trophy, the sixth-highest of any team in the competition, and they’re deemed more likely winners than 15-time champions Real Madrid (4.4%) and Manchester United (3.82%).Arsenal are statistically regarded as the favourites with a 20.88% chance of going the distance, followed by Bayern Munich (19.37%) and Manchester City (12.28%).
Despite winning the last two editions, PSG are only fifth on the list at 7.09%.(Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)Want more Empire of the Kop coverage? Add us as a preferred source on Google to your favourites list for news you can trustWhat’s a realistic expectation for Liverpool in the Champions League?While Liverpool know better than anyone from their 2004/05 exploits that the Champions League can sometimes throw up a surprise winner, there’s no major expectation on the Reds to lift the trophy this season, especially after the hard work they made of merely qualifying in the first place.Opta’s calculations would indicate that finishing in the top eight of the league phase for the third year running – and duly avoiding the bear pit of a knockout play-off round in February – is a realistic target, and that a repeat of last term’s run to the quarter-finals would be considered par.Iraola’s team face some tough fixtures in this round of the competition (Atletico at home, Fenerbahce and Inter away), but they still avoided the likes of Bayern, PSG, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund and Roma.Ideally, Liverpool will be in a position whereby their top-eight status is secured as early as possible so that they don’t go into the final matchday at home to Lens requiring a result to avoid the February play-off round.For now, the focus is purely on trying to beat Atletico tomorrow night.
Do that, and the Reds have a solid foundation for the remainder of their Champions League campaign.