Opta supercomputer predicts how back-to-back Liverpool defeats have impacted their Premier League title chances

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Liverpool have faced two big setbacks in their quest to become back-to-back Premier League champions.On their trip to Stamford Bridge, the Reds found themselves undone by a late Etevao Willian winner, which gave Chelsea a 2-1 victory over Arne Slot’s side.Not only did it extend Chelsea’s winning run at their home ground against Liverpool, but it also extended Slot’s winless run in the league after also being beaten by a late Crystal Palace winner the weekend before.It is a shame that their form has taken a drastic dip, given that the side were able to string together five straight victories, albeit with last-minute winners of their own, against teams such as Arsenal.Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty ImagesHowever, they have now given the Gunners a slight advantage going into the international break as the Dutchman’s team are now one point behind their rivals.Opta Supercomputer says Arsenal more likely than Liverpool to win the Premier LeagueThis is not the position that Slot and his team wanted to find themselves in after their unbeaten start, but it has given them a much-needed wake-up call.The consecutive defeats were always likely to come, given the vulnerabilities in defence and the balance of the squad following summer spending of over £400 million on new additions to this title-winning squad.Pundits have cast some doubt over whether the team can overcome this poor form, as Jamie Carragher has highlighted Liverpool’s defensive set-up as an issue that they will need to sort out if they are to be successful.It is not only former footballers who have called into question the Reds being favourites this season, but also Opta’s Supercomputer, which had previously predicted they would win the league.However, that has now all changed after the back-to-back losses, as Arsenal have now shot up in their likelihood of becoming champions at 44.1%.Matchday 7 has been completed in the 2025-26 Premier League season. These are the latest title probabilities via the Opta supercomputer:Arsenal – 44.1%Liverpool – 32.0%Manchester City – 12.5%— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) October 5, 2025 View Tweet Whereas Liverpool are now just behind their rivals with a 32% chance of regaining their title despite being the outright favourite at the beginning of the season.Way behind the Reds is Manchester City, who have a 12.5% chance of becoming champions after a poor season last year.Where can Liverpool pick up points in their next five games?While it is too early to tell, this has proven that this rocky period is an issue, as it has reduced the chances statistically of the Reds becoming champions.But there are chances in the next five fixtures to pick up points with Nottingham Forest in November, very likely given their turmoil at this current moment.READ MORE: Danny Murphy claims Arne Slot is giving one instruction which has ‘become a problem’ for LiverpoolImmediately, there is a chance against Manchester United, but there is a worry that they will decide to turn up against the Reds even if they have not been at their best.There will be tougher games against the likes of Brentford away from home, as they have only lost once at their home ground this season, and Liverpool have struggled with defeats away from home.It will be difficult to tell against Aston Villa or Manchester City how the team will fare until it comes to it, but there is hope that their form from last season may return quickly.