Premier League Predictions: Arsenal vs Aston Villa – Villa Can Capitalise on Jittery Gunners

Premier League leaders Arsenal host third-placed Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, in a high-stakes top-of-the-table clash kicking off at 15:15. A win for Arsenal would extend their lead to five points, solidifying their title charge, while victory for Villa—riding an impressive 11 consecutive wins across all competitions—would level them with the Gunners and keep Manchester City's hopes alive.[2][1]

Bookmakers heavily favor Arsenal at -238 odds, implying a 70% win probability, with value spotted in Over 2.5 goals at -116 due to both teams' attacking form. Arsenal average 2.8 goals per home game in their last 10 (9W-1D-0L), conceding just 0.5, while Villa boast 9 wins and 1 loss away, scoring 2.1 per game.[1] Recent head-to-heads favor Villa, who won three of the last five, including a 2-1 victory over Arsenal on December 6 and a 2-0 at the Emirates in 2023.[2][4]

Key Stats and Form

• Arsenal: Unbeaten in 6 home league games; 60.2% possession, strong defense (0.8 goals conceded/game).[1][5]
• Villa: Club-record 11-win streak; excel in second halves, often via long-range strikes like Morgan Rogers'.[4][2]
• Last meeting: Villa 2-1 Arsenal (24 days ago); Arsenal rebounded with 5 straight wins.[4]

Predictions and Best Bets

Analysts are split. Some predict a narrow Arsenal 1-0 win to end 2025 strongly, citing home form despite recent Villa struggles at the Emirates.[3] Others foresee a 1-1 draw, backing Under 2.5 goals (-115), Second Half Draw/Villa (+125), and Rogers to score (+375) given Arsenal's post-break vulnerabilities.[4] Villa's momentum could exploit Arsenal's jittery displays, making them a live underdog.[2]

This finale before the New Year promises fireworks, with Villa's form positioning them to capitalize on any Arsenal wobble.

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