Premier League Predictions and Best Bets: Destruction Derby? Manchester City Set to Smash Manchester United

The Manchester derby at Old Trafford pits struggling Manchester United against title-chasing Manchester City on January 17, 2026. United, seventh in the Premier League and three points off fourth-placed Liverpool, are without a permanent manager after sacking Ruben Amorim. Interim boss Michael Carrick takes charge for the first time, hoping to spark a turnaround amid a four-game winless streak and just one win in their last six league matches[1][4][7]. Despite this, United average 1.71 goals per game with the second-highest expected goals (xG) at 38.34, though their defense has managed only one clean sheet in 10 outings[2].

City, leading the scoring charts with 45 goals from 21 matches (top xG of 40.24), remain unbeaten in 13 games across all competitions but have drawn their last three league fixtures, allowing Arsenal to pull six points clear[4][6][7]. Pep Guardiola's side, bolstered by new signing Antoine Semenyo, have won nine of their last 12 but face defensive injury issues and vulnerability away, with just three clean sheets in nine road games[2][3]. They crushed United 3-0 earlier this season and boast strong historical edges, winning eight of the last 10 derbies at Old Trafford[4][8].

Predictions heavily favor City: Action Network projects a 47.1% win chance (1.75 goals) vs. United's 31% (1.40 goals), with a 3.15 total and picks for Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-139)[2]. Sports Illustrated forecasts Man Utd 1-3 Man City[3]; GOAL predicts 0-2 with Haaland and Semenyo scoring/assisting[4]; Covers sees City winning their 11th in 14[6]. Stats highlight overs: 9 of United's last 11 vs. City exceeded 2.5 goals, and both teams score in 16 of United's last 20 league games[8][9]. Odds list City as -111 favorites (53% implied), United +265[5]. A high-scoring City victory looks likely in this electric clash.

(Word count: 298)