What history teaches us about this season's Premier League race

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When betting on early Premier League futures, that's a starting point, not a guarantee. They were five points ahead at Christmas but ended five points behind City.

The winning formula: Points, goals, and defensive steel In 2017/18 Manchester City managed to score 100 goals. They conceded 27 goals and managed 71 goals, which is still quite a bit less than usual in today's championship but they were able to convert control, set-pieces and narrow chances into 85-points.

Season Champion Points GF GA 2021-22 Manchester City 93 99 26 2022-23 Manchester City 89 94 33 2023-24 Manchester City 81 96 23 2024-25 Liverpool 84 86 41 2025-26 Arsenal 85 71 27 The modern points threshold: Is 90+ the new normal? So that should mean that by mid-season each serious contender for the Premier League title should be expected to be playing at a 90-point rate, with an elite goal difference and, crucially, a top-two finish over Christmas.