xG vs goals: The Premier League forwards who are over and underachieving
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Credit: IMAGO.
Oliver Walton
Mon 22 September 2025 10:40, UK
The 2025-26 Premier League season is underway and well over 100 goals have already hit the back of the net.
Last weekend’s Game Week 5 followed the trend of this season’s title race looking set to be one of the most competitive in recent seasons.
The difference makers come next May will be the forwards, but which ones are under and overachieving after five matches?
Football Insider has taken a look at which club’s attackers are outperforming in front of goal and there are some surprise names….
Erling Haaland is the Premier League’s top goalscorer so far this season.
Credit: IMAGO.
Expected goals (xG) is a performance metric that assigns a probability to an attempt being scored based on historical data.
These data points give a good indication of how many goals a player should have scored.
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City‘s Erling Haaland, also the league’s top goalscorer with six goals, leads the way with an xG (excluding penalties) of 6.26.
ForwardClubxG (excl. pens)Goals (excl. pens)DifferentialErling HaalandMan City6.266.00– 0.26Jaidon AnthonyBurnley2.063.00+ 0.94BetoEverton2.001.00– 1.00Antoine SemenyoBournemouth1.992.00+ 0.01Chris WoodNott’m Forest1.992.00+ 0.01Ismaila SarrCrystal Palace1.982.00+ 0.02Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal Palace1.891.00– 0.89Bryan MbeumoMan United1.851.00– 0.85Hugo EkitikeLiverpool1.783.00+ 1.22RicharlisonSpurs1.643.00+ 1.36Joao PedroChelsea1.502.00+ 0.50Viktor GyokeresArsenal1.342.00+ 0.66Iliman NdiayeEverton1.302.00+ 0.70Premier League forwards with highest xG.
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Other players outperforming their expected number of goals include Burnley‘s Jaidon Anthony, Chelsea‘s Joao Pedro, Everton‘s Iliman Ndiaye and, despite his lacklustre performance against Manchester City on Sunday (21 September), Arsenal‘s Viktor Gyokeres.
There are two clear standout performers when it comes to efficiency in front of goal, though…
So far this season, Tottenham‘s Richarlison and Liverpool‘s Hugo Ekitike have been the Premier League‘s most clinical finishers.
The pair have netted three goals each but neither have been expected to score more than one at this stage of the campaign.
Richarlison has been the Premier League’s most clinical finisher after five games.
The French forward has scored three league goals (excluding penalties), 1.36 more than he should have, statistically.